It's possible that Rick Perry's running an attack ad on Bell because he's gaining in the polls. The only two holes in that theory - as I see it - are as follows:

1) Bell isn't gaining in the polls.

2) Even if Bell was gaining in the polls, this ad was almost certainly put together at least a week ago. When he also wasn't gaining in the polls.

That said, it's always a fun news cycle when the best news the Democratic gubernatorial campaign has is the rollout of a series of attack ads that will, at the very least, take some attention off Chris Bell telling reporters and other candidates about how he can't win.

Jeremy, I love it. Are you insinuating that the Perry and Bell campaigns are, in essence, cooperating with each other in order to keep poor Kinky down? I can almost expect the delusional Strayhorn folks to be that narcisisstic about their candidate, but Kinky? Where did you get that garlic, man? I need some for the Stones concert.

By the way, you can put together an ad in less than a week.

No, that's not what I was suggesting. I think Perry's running negatives on Chris Bell for the same reason Bell's going negative on Kinky - to solidify and activate each side's "base" in advance of the election. Absent of issues the candidates have successfully defined themselves on, it's pretty much the only way both sides of the mainstream candidate coin have of mounting a get out the vote effort.

That said, if you have a poll that suggests Chris Bell's picked up 15 points in the past three days, I'd love to see it.

In any case, I'm pretty sure you're using narcissistic three different kinds of inappropriately. Please stop doing that; it makes my teeth itch.

I know you can put together an ad in less than a week. But did you see that Bell shrinkng effect? That's some serious ILM craftsmanship. I really felt like I was watching Chris Bell being wiped from existence by his own unacceptable liberalness.

Perry just does not like Bell and is burying Bell since Bell torpedoed his own race with the silly request to Kinky.
Bell's ad looks like a late night lawyer ad.
Kinky is funny but does not seem to have his heart in the race.
Strayhorn knows what's going on and she's shown she has a heart.
Strayhorn cares so she gets my vote.!

Points taken Jeremy. It's difficult to be narcissistic about someone else. On the polling data, you have to combine tracking polls with some data from previous elections, and then make some professional judgements. Kinky and Carole were hyped enough by the media to give them credibility which has impacted the public polls. After the debate, that has gone away. It's back to the two major parties and the indies are spoilers. Naturally, Perry would attack Bell before he develops any momentum and in anticipation of an O'Quinn financed attack from Bell. I know you are still holding out hope for Kinky, but I don't see it.

Luckily for Perry, Bell's decided instead to attack a candidate who - in your "professional judgment" - doesn't have a chance.

First Kinky Friedman wasn't going to make the ballot. Then he was going to quickly drop to the single digits. Then he was polling pretty well, but certainly that lead would evaporate after Labor Day.

Right now - like, today - was Bell's last chance to advance something resembling a positive message. For the first time and only time in the campaign, he had money and a few bored media types were actually curious as to what he was about. What does he do? He pisses his million dollars away on negative, falsely premised ads on a third party candidate he spent the entire week complimenting in the efforts to take his votes.

Show me the combination of "tracking polls" and "data from previous elections" that has Bell winning. I'd love to see that, along with any likely voter poll that has Bell more than a couple of points ahead of a candidate who's focused his entire campaign on unlikely voters.

go away jeremy.

Perry is doing an ad because he's got millions of dollars that he's collected in campaign funds and he knows that his contributors will be pissed if he doesn't attack Bell. Here's a question, why would Perry be so damn dumb as to give Bell any exposure at all? Nobody out side the party faithful knows who he is, but there are plenty of people that hate Perry, He may just have given them a candidate. Dumb Ass!

I've said it before and I'll say it again - Jeremy is full of macaca.

Jeremy --

The newspaper in the ad showed a headline from three days ago. They couldn't have made it a week ago. What's more, Bell has appeared in tons of newspaper articles talking about his record. I'm sorry you don't read the paper. Also, Bell hadn't spent any $$ attacking Friedman.

And finally, for all the bitching you do about Bell's whatever, you NEVER promote your own candidate (Friedman). You just troll other blogs and attack Bell. So either grow up or shut up.

As far as I know, I've never attacked Bell on anything other than the quality of his campaign and the issues he's advocated. In any case, that last one is why I support Kinky. I think Chris Bell's advocacy of civil unions instead of the full-on fabulousness of gay marriage is cowardly. Kinky's my man on that issue. I think Chris Bell's non-stance on illegal immigration and criminal justice reform highlights a major policy weakness within the Democratic party. Again, on those issues, Kinky's my guy.

For what its worth, I'm constantly comparing Chris Bell to Kinky Friedman, and finding the former lacking. On honesty, on charisma, on ethics, and on progressive issues.

I posted here to point out that the "Perry's clearly scared of Bell" bit in the post above wasn't backed up by any evidence whatsoever. I was asked to defend my position, so I did.

Rest assured, gentle, inexplicably Bell-supporting liberals, that is not my intention to piss y'all off, or dominate the comment section of this blog. I've certainly received more immature, unsubstantiated (although I am, in fact, full of monkeys) attacks from y'all then you've heard from me. No?

God forbid it occur to The Other Idiot, uh, Guy or some of the others on here that Kinky is actually the biggest threat to Perry - and by boosting Bell's numbers a little and increasing the perception that he's Perry's numero uno threat, he ensures the anti-Perry vote is split further. It's just a theory. And if any of the libs reading this blog actually worked with or talked to any Rs (something I do every day), you'd know. Perry is more worried about Kinky than Bell.

At least Jeremy makes sense.

Tell Janet to go away. She's shallow and doesn't know the first thing about any of the candidates. All she knows is Strayhorn has tits, and apparently that's good enough.

Janet, you're just plain sad.

Jeremy, you're silly, but so is your candidate, so it fits. Garlic lover, you're not too bright. Carole has by far been the more dominant concern. Jeremy, I'll bet you real money. Kinky has always been a spoiler candidate. He told you why during the debate if you were listening.

OK, I'll help you figure this one out. Kinky is a great as a punching bag. His politically incorrectness is amusing but doesn't change votes much. Running negatives on Bell will enhance him (Bell) as the alternative to Perry, which will cut into Carole's anti-Perry base by bringing some Democrats, such as teachers, back to the Democrat. I still hope Kinky beats Carole because she is a real bitch. Everybody loves Kinky. Everybody, except maybe black people right now. The last thing any of us need is Carole thinking she should keep running for office.

That's your analysis? That people don't know who Chris Bell is three weeks from election day and will see this ad and go: "hey, there's a guy we don't know anything about at all running for Governor of Texas! Let's vote for him!"?

I'm at a loss for words. Has Jason Stanford heard this analysis? If so, has somebody taken his shoelaces and removed all the sharp objects from his house?

I didn't write anything near that. What you don't want to believe, is that it takes a whole lot of everything happening exactly right, and being in a liberal/progressive state, for an independent to beat the two major parties. Kinky nor Carole are going to do that. There is a desire to make sure Bell comes in second in many quarters. What are you 15?

If the machinery of the Democratic party is now arrayed solely to secure a SECOND PLACE FINISH (moral victory!) for their candidate, then the party deserves neither loyalty nor respect. I mean, seriously.

The formula for Kinky Friedman's victory in November is not a complicated one, nor is it a secret. If a million or so unlikely voters turn out to vote, Kinky wins. The Friedman campaign doesn't have to get it's message exactly right, it doesn't have to fixate on what the other side is saying and negotiate it's own platform accordingly to snatch up remaining voting blocs.

The idea is to create a new voting bloc out of all the people who are tired of the current state of politics. To that extent, Perry and Bell's shared commitment to being as tiresome and negative as possible in the next few weeks is a gift for Kinky.

In any case, we're now both way off topic, and I'm partially to blame. Apologies, y'all.

I admire your passion. I like Kinky. My original hope was that he would eventually lead a revitalized Democratic party. At any rate, have a good few weeks and keep your passion.

Although I don't currently live in Texas (military has me elsewhere), I do still vote in Texas. I am still voting for Chris Bell (he might be boring but he's still the best cantidate out there). I would never vote for Perry or Strayhorn but I did think about voting for Kinky for a short time. I agree that it would be nice to have someone outside of the "beltway" in the govenor's mansion I don't think Kinky is that person. He has some decent ideas but with the Republicans controlling the state, his ideas would never come to exist. And even with that train of thought, Bell would never get anything passed. Well I guess here's to 4 more years of Perry. I don't really think the Kinky campaign can get another million voters to show up on election day. Good luck though.

This is a red meat ad, aimed at Perry's base. Chris Bell Democrat! Chris Bell liberal! Chris Bell Chris Bell, Chris Bell!!

Perry's got so much damn money, he's now doing ads for his opponent.
Now that's one arrogant motherfucker.

Marie gets it. Take notice Jeremy.

Hey other guy look at Jeremy's previous comment, he said teh same thing Marie did.

"I think Perry's running negatives on Chris Bell to solidify and activate each side's "base" in advance of the election."

What is he supposed to take notice of that he gets it as well?

That it has nothing to do with Kinky. But you're right that I didn't read that line so carefully. In the longer conversation it seemed to that there was some lack of realism about the role the two parties really play and that the independents are fading. I still think that's true. If anyone has any chance of beating the incumbent Republican Governor in a Republican state, it would probably be a completely solid opposition lead by the opposition party. Kinky and Carole are both thwarting that.

Final numbers will be

Perry 44%
Bell 32%
Carole 12%
Kinky 10%
Others 2%

This really pains me because I really wanted Kinky to beat Carole. The only two candidates to increase their numbers will be Perry and Bell.

I'll bet you a drink you are more than 5% off on at least one of those numbers. Deal?

Which one?

any of them, that's what "at least one" in my original propposition meant, If you are 4% off on all of them you win, but if you are 5% off on any single one, I win.

(I'm not sure why that was unclear)

OK, I'll take that bet.